NFL Fantasy Football: Avoid These Negative TD Regression Candidates (2024)

Obviously, the goal in the NFL is to score as many touchdowns as possible. That goes without saying. However, as fantasy football has become more and more popular over the years, players who score frequently are regarded very highly in the fantasy community, considering how many points they provide to their owners.

With that in mind, each of these five players frequented the end zone often in 2023. Whether it was through rushing or receiving touchdowns, they each found ways to score a lot last year. However, that might not be the case for them in 2024.

Touchdown regression refers to the phenomenon that occurs after a player scores a lot more than they were expected to one year, and regresses back to the mean the following season. Reasons for this could include injuries, tougher opponents, changes in the coaching staff, or just more talent and depth at their position in their team.

With that in mind, let's take a look at five players who are likely candidates to suffer from this phenomenon in 2024.

1 Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Edwards scored a career-high 13 touchdowns in 2023

Gus Edwards signed with the Baltimore Ravens as an undrafted free agent in 2018, and since then, he's built a pretty solid career for himself. He's turned into a perennial 700+ yard rusher, hitting that total in four of his six seasons in the league. He's been pretty efficient as well, tallying over five yards per carry in each of his first four full seasons, with 2023 being the only outlier.

It's not like 2023 was a step-down, though. While he was a little less efficient, with 4.1 yards per carry, it was arguably his best season otherwise. He had a career-high in rushing yards, with 810, and took a massive jump in rushing touchdowns. In 2023, Edwards scored 13 times on the ground. His previous career-high in that category was six, which he reached in 2020.

As you can see, Edwards' 13 scores in 2023 came out of nowhere. He hadn't even reached half that amount before that season, and he surprised a lot of people last year. The Ravens wanted to have a committee backfield, but Edwards was the only one who could stay healthy. That won't happen in L.A. this year.

First is the fact that Edwards will be sharing a backfield with J.K. Dobbins once again. The two were teammates in Baltimore, and are now together again with the Los Angeles Chargers . Dobbins has missed time with injuries recently, but he's finally heading into the season healthy, and should get a decent workload.

Aside from Dobbins, the Chargers have another quality running back in Kimani Vidal . Vidal was their sixth round selection in this year's draft, and he had a tremendous collegiate career himself. He's likely to see a decent workload in 2024 as well.

In short, when Edwards broke out in 2023, he was less efficient and got the most rushing attempts in any season in his career. In a crowded backfield next to Justin Herbert , who will also be throwing the ball a lot, it's reasonable to expect a decline in his touchdown total.

2 Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Williams exploded onto the scene in his sophom*ore year

When the Los Angeles Rams used their fifth round pick on Kyren Williams back in 2022, they likely didn't expect him to become as much of an asset as he has.

Predictably, as a fifth round selection, he had a quiet rookie year. Williams only got 35 carries in 2022, and he turned them into 139 yards. However, during the 2023 season, he really got a chance to shine. Williams watched his career take off, as he racked up an astonishing 1,144 rushing yards, while scoring 12 times on the ground.

Williams obviously took a massive jump in 2023, and part of that was due to the fact that he got a ton of opportunities. After getting just 35 attempts in his rookie year, Williams got a whopping 228 in his second season, giving him much more of a chance to make an impact.

However, the Rams did add to their running back room this offseason. Despite Williams' breakout campaign, Los Angeles still went ahead and added Blake Corum through the draft. Corum has a similar style of play to Williams, and his presence will be meant to lighten the load for Williams.

Corum scored 58 times during his career at Michigan, so he's established himself as a goal line threat. With that in mind, he could very well vulture a few scores from his backfield mate, so expect a drop in rushing touchdowns for Williams in 2024.

3 Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

With questions regarding the Vikings QB room, expect Addison's stats to drop in year two

The Minnesota Vikings selected Jordan Addison with their first round pick last year, and he made sure the team didn't regret it.

Addison jumped onto the scene in his rookie year, amassing over 900 receiving yards, with an impressive 70 receptions and 10 touchdowns. He was a difference-maker, to say the least, and formed an excellent pairing with the team's star receiver, Justin Jefferson .

Addison will likely still be productive during the 2024 season, but there's a good chance he won't reach double digits in touchdowns again this year. Most of that is due to the fact that seven of his 10 touchdowns in 2023 came from Kirk Cousins . Once Cousins suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8, Addison recorded just three touchdowns over the following nine weeks.

With J.J. McCarthy suffering a season-ending injury, Sam Darnold at the moment looks like the only real option at quarterback for the Vikings to begin the year. With less talent at quarterback, it looks like Addison might be in for some touchdown regression this season.

It's also worth mentioning that seven of Addison's TDs came from 20+ yards (third-most in the NFL) out, and these types of big plays make Addison's scoring output very boom or bust.

4 Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans

In Houston, Diggs is surrounded by a bit more talent than he was in Buffalo

Stefon Diggs has been an excellent player throughout his NFL career. He's also been consistent, during his time in both Minnesota, and with the Buffalo Bills .

That consistency shouldn't be doubted in 2024. Diggs is still one of the better receivers in the league, and will have a very talented quarterback in C.J. Stroud throwing him the ball. However, it's more than fair to suggest the Houston Texans will have more firepower this year than his former team, the Bills, had in recent years.

Now, this isn't to say Diggs isn't capable of reaching eight touchdowns in 2024. He's hit that total in six of his nine seasons. However, he hasn't played around as much talent as he will in 2024. In Minnesota, he shared the field with Adam Thielen , and in Buffalo, he shared it with Gabe Davis .

In Houston, he'll be sharing it with Nico Collins , Tank Dell , Dalton Schultz , and Joe Mixon . Diggs, for the first time in his career, won't be the first option. He'll still be productive, but it's unlikely he'll score as many times as he did in 2023 with all the firepower the Texans have.

5 Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

LaPorta had an excellent rookie season, but could score less in 2024

Sam LaPorta had an amazing rookie season for the Detroit Lions , and he surpassed pretty much any expectations anyone had for him.

Laporta saw 120 targets, and he was able to turn those into 86 receptions and 889 yards. He amassed over 10 yards per reception, proving that he could act as a security blanket for his quarterback, Jared Goff , while still being efficient with his touches.

Now, it's very likely Laporta will see a similar number of targets, receptions, receiving yards, and yards per reception again in 2024. It's clear that he's earned Goff's trust, so he'll get his chances. However, his touchdown total is likely unsustainable.

In 2023, Laporta's 10 receiving touchdowns were by far the most of any tight end. A flurry of tight ends, including Mark Andrews , Hunter Henry , George Kittle , Cole Kmet and David Njoku all came in second, with 6. In terms of targets, Travis Kelce , T.J. Hockenson , Evan Engram , and Njoku all had more than LaPorta.

To put it simply, Laporta turned an ungodly number of his targets into touchdowns in 2023, far more than any other tight end. He'll be one of the best in the game again this season, but it's unlikely he matches his touchdown efficiency from last year.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.